连续创业者创业经验与再次创业成功关系研究——基于中国互联网行业面板数据的分析

通过研究中国互联网行业252位连续创业者创办的608家公司，对连续创业者先前创业经历与再次创业成功可能性间关系进行研究。从创业次数、退出状态、行业经验以及第一笔投资获取时间等维度进行分析，提出相应假设并运用最小二乘法进行验证。结果显示，创业次数及细分行业经验而不考虑先前创业业绩不能作为后续再次创业成功的可能性预估指标；创业次数越多与先前创业成功的创业者再次创业时倾向于等待更长时间才获取第一笔投资，而创业失败的创业者再次创业时第一笔投资获取时间更早；先前创业成功的创业者再次创业成功的可能性极高，而先前创业失败的创业者则容易再次失败；另外，无论创业者在相同还是不同细分行业进行再次创业，该关系都保持不变。最终，根据研究结果对投资者、政策制定者及创业者提出管理与政策建议。     

Inspection,testing errors and trade in tainted products

This paper examines international trade and inspection involving tainted products in a model of quality choice, facing fears that globalization is the cause of numerous food incidents. Particularly, we ask the following questions: (i) What are the conditions under which foreign firms choose to produce tainted goods? (ii) Does globalization via freer trade lower product safety? (iii) Why are goods imported even though they are known to be harmful? We show the existence of a free trade Nash equilibrium characterized by production and trade of high-quality non-tainted products. However, free trade cannot prevent the export of tainted goods, because the foreign firm may deviate under different combinations of parameters. We identify self-correcting mechanisms such as nationalism and a political-economy re-allocation of public resources in favor of customs authorities. Nevertheless, we also uncover activities that exacerbate tainted production like errors of testing and sabotage by rival firms.     

民间金融的实践、风险与规范化发展——“互联网背景下民间金融风险与规范化发展”会议综述

民间金融是把双刃剑,对其合理引导可促进国民经济发展,但如果用之不当,也会扰乱经济金融秩序,甚至引发地区性的社会不稳定。民间金融与互联网技术的融合,使得民间金融活动更加频繁、参与主体更为复杂、波及面更为广泛,而且往往游离于银监会和央行监管之外,加大了民间金融规范发展的难度。但互联网技术与民间金融的融合也是推动金融改革,促使民间金融走向规范化、阳光化的一大动力。因此,未来应适当降低民间金融准入门槛,通过财政税收等调节手段,引导民间资本流向实体经济、风险投资等领域。同时,应加快立法、普法进程,提升民众的金融知识和风险意识,明确监管责任边界。     

我国主题酒店营销探析

体验经济时代的到来使得国内主题酒店面临新的机遇和挑战,不能准确把握消费者需求、营销理念过时、缺乏新颖的营销策略等问题成为主题酒店不能完全适应现阶段消费者行为和需求转变的障碍。本文提出在主题酒店实施体验营销的观点,并从制定体验营销战略和体验营销组合策略两方面着手分析,使主题酒店能更好地满足消费者的体验需求,实现自身长远发展。     

新课改下高中历史探究式教学的作法与体会

随着新课程的推行和深入开展,中学历史的探究式教学取得了很大进展。本文对历史教学中探究式教学的认识、尝试以及体会浅谈下自己的一些认识。     

Understanding the experience and meaning of app-based food delivery from a mobility perspective

Online food delivery service has developed rapidly and expanded the boundaries of the catering industry. Being a food delivery rider in the gig economy attracts workers with the premises of flexibility and freedom. However, existing studies based on labor process theory revealed that freedom is fictitious. The study sheds light on how the individual rider finds meaning in their work from the mobility perspective. A mixed-method approach based on questionnaires, interviews, and mobile ethnography is applied. Findings showed that food delivery riders gain the experience of freedom in many aspects, from flexible working hours, body movement, immediate cash transfer to freedom from many other regulations. Being a rider represents a free lifestyle and a way to control one’s fate. Yet, it is perceived as a transitional job. This study contributes to making connections between the mobility perspective and work-related studies.     

Narrative construction of expatriate experience and career cycle: discursive patterns in Finnish stories of international

Expatriate experience is not only a disconnected occasion for cross-cultural anxiety and adjustment but also an important event in the process of self-development and learning. Following this view and arguing for a discursive approach, the paper focuses on ways in which expatriates themselves tell and interpret their development and movement across expatriate career cycle. Meaning systems connecting expatriate job with previous and following work experiences in career stories of Finnish engineers and managers were identified using a combination of narrative and discourse analysis. No evidence was found of an autonomous expatriate discourse but, in contrast, expatriate career cycle was narrated using available organizational repertoires of development and career. Describing and discussing the meaning-making properties of three identified discourses - bureaucratic, occupational and enterprising - the paper emphasizes the organizational environment of expatriate experience while acknowledging the limits of these contemporary career vocabularies in addressing individual learning and change in cross-cultural settings.     

Do survey joiners and leavers differ from regular participants? The US SPF GDP growth and inflation forecasts

If ‘learning by doing’ is important for macro-forecasting, newcomers might be different from regular, established participants. Stayers may also differ from the soon-to-leave. We test these conjectures for macro-forecasters’ point predictions of output growth and inflation, and for their histogram forecasts. Histogram forecasts of inflation by both joiners and leavers are found to be less accurate, especially if we suppose that joiners take time to learn. For GDP growth, there is no evidence of differences between the groups in terms of histogram forecast accuracy, although GDP point forecasts by leavers are less accurate. These findings are predicated on forecasters being homogeneous within groups. Allowing for individual fixed effects suggests fewer differences, including leavers’ inflation histogram forecasts being no less accurate.     

参军经历会导致农村青年收入溢价吗?——以CFPS2010调查9628个样本为例

文章基于CFPS2010调查的9628个农村男性数据，研究参军经历对个人收入的影响，并以"家庭成分"作为工具变量去除了内生性问题引起的估计偏误。研究发现：参军经历显著增加了个人收入，在控制其他变量后，农村退伍军人的收入高于没有参军者35.5%。进一步分析表明，（1）农村退伍军人更容易获得城镇就业机会，而城镇就业显著提高了个人收入；（2）农村退伍军人拥有更广泛的社会网络，而社会网络也显著促进了个人收入。因此，文章创新地发现了参军经历通过"城镇就业"和"社会网络"两个中介渠道影响个人收入。